MOGADISHU — The planned withdrawal of Burundian troops serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is raising concerns about the future security of strategic towns and major transportation routes in the Middle Shabelle region.
Burundian forces have maintained a significant military presence in Middle Shabelle, particularly in areas surrounding the Shabelle River and territories north of Mogadishu. Their deployment under AUSSOM Sector 5 has played an important role in supporting security operations, protecting key roads, and assisting Somali forces in their fight against Al-Shabaab.
Several strategic locations are expected to be affected by the withdrawal, which is anticipated before December 31, 2026. These include Balcad, approximately 33 kilometers from Mogadishu; Jowhar, 71 kilometers; Mahadaay, 84 kilometers; Garsaale, 100 kilometers; and Buurane, approximately 106 kilometers from the capital.
These towns occupy strategically important positions along routes connecting Mogadishu with Middle Shabelle and other central regions of Somalia. The presence of Burundian troops has contributed to securing major transportation corridors, military installations, and important administrative centers in Hirshabelle State.
Their departure could place additional security responsibilities on the Somali National Army and other local security forces, particularly in maintaining control of military positions, protecting civilian transportation, and preventing Al-Shabaab from exploiting potential security gaps.
The withdrawal also raises questions about whether Somali forces have sufficient personnel, equipment, logistical capacity, and operational coordination to take over the positions currently held by Burundian troops.
The key challenge will be ensuring that the withdrawal does not create a security vacuum in strategically important areas surrounding Mogadishu and across Middle Shabelle.
As Somalia continues its security transition, the ability of its national forces to independently secure these locations and maintain control of vital transportation routes will be a significant test of the country’s security preparedness.
