By HAN News Desk
ADDIS ABABA / ASMARA – Regional dynamics in the Horn of Africa are once again shifting as tensions resurface between Eritrea and Ethiopia, two nations whose relationship has long been marked by cycles of hostility and reconciliation.
After years of cautious optimism following the 2018 peace agreement that reopened borders between the two countries, relations have sharply deteriorated once again. The reconciliation — once hailed as a historic breakthrough ending two decades of animosity — had seen border crossings reopened, diplomatic ties restored, and families separated by conflict reunited.
However, analysts now warn that the fragile peace has collapsed amid growing mistrust, shifting alliances, and competing political interests within the region.
Recent reports from international and regional media indicate that Eritrea and Ethiopia are preparing for possible renewed conflict, following months of diplomatic silence and increasing military activity near their shared frontier.
The relationship between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the Tigray regional authorities has also soured, fueling fears that a wider regional confrontation could once again destabilize the Horn of Africa — a region already grappling with drought, displacement, and economic hardship.
During a recent session of Ethiopia’s Parliament, MP Desalegn Chanie questioned Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed about the government’s handling of rising tensions with Eritrea. He urged authorities to pursue peaceful dialogue instead of returning to war.
“How many generations must end their lives in endless wars?” the MP asked.
“Why can’t we learn lessons from the past and solve our conflicts through negotiation instead of violence?”
Chanie’s comments have resonated widely among Ethiopians who fear the economic and humanitarian consequences of renewed fighting. Civil society groups have also echoed calls for restraint and diplomacy, warning that another conflict could reverse years of development and reconstruction efforts.
Political analysts point to shifting alliances as a major factor in the current tensions. Ethiopia’s attempts at cooperation with Somaliland, which failed to materialize, and its recent rapprochement with Turkey have further complicated its regional relationships.
Meanwhile, Eritrea has maintained a policy of strategic isolation and suspicion toward external influence, a stance that continues to shape its dealings with Addis Ababa and other regional actors.
Experts say the breakdown of trust between Asmara and Addis Ababa risks reigniting the same divisions that fueled their bloody border war between 1998 and 2000, which claimed tens of thousands of lives.
Outlook
For now, both governments have remained silent on the reports of military build-up. But as tensions rise and old wounds resurface, observers warn that the Horn of Africa could be entering another period of uncertainty.
As one regional analyst put it, “The question is no longer whether Ethiopia and Eritrea can make peace — it’s whether they can sustain it.”
