By Horn Africa News Staff
Ethiopia, a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, has remained cut off from direct access to the sea. Since then, Addis Ababa has struggled with what it describes as “water insecurity,” intensifying its quest for a maritime outlet to support its trade and national security.
This ambition has prompted the Ethiopian government to launch a series of sensitive diplomatic and military initiatives, with a particular focus on the neighboring coastal states of Somalia and Eritrea.
Ethiopia’s Strategic Maritime Objectives
Ethiopia sees access to the sea as vital to its future — not only for trade connectivity but also for broader security and territorial expansion goals. The country aims to avoid full dependence on any single access point to reduce vulnerability to political or military pressure and instead seeks independent and permanent access to strategic waters, especially the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
Ethiopia’s Plans for Somalia
Ethiopia has increasingly turned its attention to Somalia’s coastline, particularly the shores of Somaliland, which lie geographically close to Ethiopian territory. This interest came to a head in January 2024, when Addis Ababa signed a controversial agreement with the government of then-Somaliland President Muse Bihi.
The deal drew widespread attention and concern, as it hinted at Ethiopia’s long-term aim to secure a naval foothold in Somali territory.
Ethiopia’s Hidden Agenda
There is growing suspicion that Ethiopia’s ultimate goal is to take full control of a portion of the Somali or Eritrean coastline — potentially establishing naval bases there. The strategic focus appears to be the Gulf of Aden, a critical maritime route.
This ambition is not merely a speculative idea within Ethiopia’s leadership — it is part of a long-term strategic vision that is already in motion. In recent months, Ethiopia has begun equipping its naval and air forces in preparation for potential maritime operations.
Ethiopia’s Interests in Eritrea
Despite Ethiopia and Eritrea signing a peace agreement in 2018 after years of war (1998–2000), tensions have reemerged. Relations have deteriorated amid Ethiopia’s internal unrest and growing mistrust between the two governments.
Ethiopia seeks access to Eritrea’s Massawa and Assab ports, but with diplomatic ties again strained, those plans appear uncertain. Addis Ababa now faces instability on multiple fronts as it ramps up its preparations for possible military action to secure maritime access.
Regional Implications
Ethiopia’s ongoing maneuvers — military preparations, diplomatic overtures, and covert plans — suggest a nation determined to break its landlocked status. However, Somalia currently lacks a coherent strategy to counter Ethiopia’s growing assertiveness, particularly if Addis Ababa opts for a military solution.
The Horn of Africa is once again teetering on the edge of geopolitical tension, with Ethiopia’s maritime quest at the heart of unfolding regional dynamics.
