ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia is showing limited signs of preparing for long-awaited national elections, as analysts warn the government appears increasingly focused on potential conflict amid rising tensions across multiple fronts.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is facing mounting security challenges involving the TPLF in the north, strained ties with neighboring Eritrea, unrest linked to Amhara Fano militias, and continued clashes with the Oromo Liberation Army in the Oromia region.
Observers say the convergence of these pressures is shifting national priorities away from democratic processes toward military preparedness. “There is little indication at present that conditions are conducive for a credible nationwide vote,” a regional analyst told AFP, pointing instead to ongoing instability and insecurity.
Ethiopia is still recovering from the devastating Tigray War, which left tens of thousands dead and millions displaced. Experts warn that renewed conflict—particularly if it involves Eritrea or escalates internally—could further strain the country’s fragile political and economic systems.
While the government has not formally abandoned plans for elections, diplomats and analysts caution that the current trajectory raises serious doubts about their feasibility in the near term.
The bigger picture: Ethiopia now faces a critical juncture, balancing security pressures with the need for political stability, as fears grow that further violence could undermine both national recovery and democratic progress.
