By Horn Africa News
MOGADISHU – Kenya has launched a fresh diplomatic initiative to mediate between Somalia’s federal government and the Jubbaland state administration, as tensions escalate over constitutional changes and the country’s electoral process, diplomatic sources told Horn Africa News on Tuesday.
According to officials familiar with the matter, Nairobi is pushing to arrange a face-to-face meeting between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubbaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe.” If successful, the dialogue would mark the first high-level engagement between the two sides in months, amid mounting political and security frictions.
The mediation effort follows renewed clashes in the border towns of Raskamboni and Beled Hawo, where fighting between federal forces and Jubbaland-aligned troops has left casualties, disrupted trade, and displaced families. The violence has at times spilled into Kenya’s Mandera County, forcing civilians to flee and raising humanitarian concerns in border communities.
Regional analysts warn that the instability risks undermining local security and complicating Kenya’s counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab, which maintains a presence across southern Somalia.
Officials in Kismayo confirmed Kenya’s interest in playing a mediating role but said Jubbaland has yet to receive a formal framework or agenda for talks. Tensions were further inflamed recently when Jubbaland accused Villa Somalia of spreading “misleading information” after Mogadishu dismissed reports of a phone call between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Madobe as “fabricated.”
At the heart of the dispute are proposed constitutional amendments and electoral reforms. Villa Somalia argues that the changes are essential to strengthen federal authority and deliver credible national elections. However, Jubbaland and other federal member states fear the reforms could dilute regional autonomy and centralize power in Mogadishu.
Kenya’s diplomatic push reflects its longstanding role in Somali peacebuilding. Nairobi hosted key reconciliation conferences in the early 2000s that led to the establishment of Somalia’s transitional federal institutions. Today, it continues to host hundreds of thousands of Somali refugees and deploys thousands of troops under the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).
Kenyan officials worry that escalating federal-state tensions could weaken joint operations against Al-Shabaab, particularly in Jubbaland, where Kenyan troops are heavily deployed. The mediation initiative is being closely watched by IGAD, the African Union, and Somalia’s Western partners, who fear prolonged deadlock could derail fragile progress toward national stability.
So far, neither Mogadishu nor Nairobi has issued an official statement on the mediation effort. Analysts caution that success will hinge on genuine political will from both Villa Somalia and Jubbaland—something that has eluded past reconciliation attempts.
The coming weeks will prove decisive. For Kenya, a breakthrough would help secure its volatile border and reaffirm its status as a regional peace broker. For Somalia, direct negotiations could offer a rare opportunity to resolve federal-state disputes that have long obstructed the country’s quest for stable governance.
