By HAN News Desk
ADDIS ABABA — Tensions across the Horn of Africa are rising sharply as shifting alliances, military movements and hardening political rhetoric fuel fears that the region is edging toward a wider conflict. Diplomats, intelligence officials and military cargo flights have become a daily presence, reflecting growing concern over Ethiopia’s renewed push to secure access to the Red Sea, a move that has triggered a cascade of reactions among neighbouring states.
Egypt has re-emerged as a central actor, forging new security and economic agreements with Djibouti and deepening its cooperation with Eritrea. These developments suggest Cairo is positioning itself to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions, particularly amid ongoing disputes over the GERD dam and broader Red Sea security. Plans for Egyptian naval deployment to Djibouti, framed as part of port development and defence cooperation, have heightened regional anxieties. In response, Ethiopia has intensified diplomatic outreach and accelerated military preparations, supported by allies including the UAE, Turkey and reportedly Israel. Addis Ababa argues that its lack of Red Sea access is an historic injustice dating back to Eritrea’s independence, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has described the issue as central to Ethiopia’s national interests.
Meanwhile, Eritrea and Djibouti have become strategic ground for new alliances. Eritrea, already aligned with Cairo, is engaged in near-daily high-level consultations with Egypt, while Djibouti has welcomed Egyptian investment in critical port expansions. Together, these dynamics have produced what analysts view as a rapidly emerging three-way alignment designed to counter Ethiopia’s search for a maritime outlet.
Amid these mounting tensions, Somalia remains internally divided and has yet to articulate a clear maritime security strategy, despite possessing the region’s longest coastline. With political instability at home and limited capacity to influence regional dynamics, Somalia is seen as the most vulnerable state if the confrontation escalates, both in terms of security and economic impact. Analysts warn that without a coherent national plan, Somalia risks being sidelined in decisions that could shape the future of the Red Sea and the wider Horn of Africa.
