Mogadishu:- The Somali federal army has advanced 246 kilometres into territory long controlled by Al-Shabaab in a swift offensive that unfolded in less than 72 hours, officials and analysts said, marking one of the fastest territorial gains in recent years.
The operation dismantled seven years of entrenched regional authority and appears to have ended two decades of influence by neighbouring Ethiopia in the area, signalling a potentially major shift in the balance of power across central and southern Somalia.
The speed of the advance has surprised observers, with key towns and strategic routes falling in quick succession and little sign of sustained resistance. Residents in some areas reported that opposition fighters withdrew before the arrival of federal troops, while others described brief clashes followed by rapid retreats.
Officials said the forces launched a coordinated ground assault backed by detailed planning, improved logistics and rapid troop movements, allowing them to seize control of large areas in a short time. Military sources indicated that the offensive targeted supply routes, command centres and communication lines, weakening the ability of Al-Shabaab to mount an effective defence.
Analysts say several factors may have contributed to the success, including weakened militant coordination, possible internal divisions within the group, and sustained pressure from previous military operations. Others point to increased cooperation between federal forces and local militias, as well as enhanced intelligence capabilities, as key elements behind the rapid advance.
The offensive also dismantled administrative structures that had governed the area for years, including taxation systems and local enforcement networks. Local authorities aligned to the previous power structure reportedly collapsed or withdrew as troops advanced, leaving a governance vacuum in several areas.
“This was not just a military operation — it was a complete political and security reset,” a regional observer told AFP on condition of anonymity. “The speed suggests careful preparation and a clear understanding of the weaknesses on the ground.”
The developments could mark a significant shift in the region, where Ethiopian influence has shaped security dynamics for nearly two decades through military presence and regional alliances. Analysts say the apparent rollback of that influence could reshape diplomatic and security relations across the Horn of Africa.
However, experts caution that holding the newly captured territory may prove more difficult than seizing it. Al-Shabaab remains a resilient and adaptive insurgent force, capable of regrouping, launching guerrilla attacks and exploiting gaps in security.
Humanitarian concerns are also emerging, with reports of displacement and disruption to local livelihoods as fighting moved through populated areas. Aid organisations warn that without rapid stabilisation efforts, civilians could face worsening conditions.
The Somali government now faces the urgent challenge of consolidating its gains by deploying administrative structures, restoring basic services and building trust with local communities to prevent a security vacuum that could allow militants to return.
The rapid developments are expected to have wider implications for the Horn of Africa, raising questions about whether the offensive marks a lasting turning point in the fight against Al-Shabaab or the beginning of a new and potentially volatile phase in the conflict.
