MOGADISHU, (HAN) — Signs of political thaw are emerging between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubbaland regional leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe”, following weeks of tension over regional administration and upcoming elections.
According to early reports, President Hassan Sheikh is unlikely to return to Kismayo for further talks, but a meeting in Nairobi is now being considered as a possible venue to continue dialogue.
Sources close to Villa Somalia suggest that diplomatic intermediaries have been working to bridge differences between the two leaders.
Ahmed Madobe, known for his shifting political stance and strong regional ambitions, has reportedly shown a degree of flexibility in recent days. His main objective remains to secure recognition for his leadership and ensure his continued control of Jubbaland, a region he has ruled since 2012 with backing from Kenya and Ethiopia.
Despite his long tenure, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has been reluctant to endorse another extension of Madobe’s rule, arguing that it undermines the federal electoral framework and power-sharing principles agreed upon in Somalia’s federal system.
Historically, Madobe has opposed successive federal administrations, often accusing Mogadishu of centralizing power and interfering in Jubbaland’s internal affairs. His relationship with the current government has been particularly strained due to disagreements over security integration, resource management, and electoral representation.
Observers say the potential Nairobi talks could mark an important step toward reconciliation and political stability, especially if both leaders commit to compromise. Kenya, which has long played a key role in Jubbaland’s politics and hosts large Somali political and business networks, is seen as a neutral ground where both sides could engage constructively.
Political analysts, however, warn that without clear agreements on election timelines, security arrangements, and the role of federal institutions in Jubbaland, any temporary détente may not hold for long.
For now, all eyes are on Nairobi — where regional diplomacy may once again shape the future of Somalia’s fragile federal system.
