BAIDOA — Ethiopian forces are reportedly preparing to withdraw from several locations in Somalia’s Bay and Bakool regions, according to preliminary reports, raising concerns about how security responsibilities will be managed in areas currently supported by Ethiopian troops.
Sources familiar with the situation say Ethiopian forces may be preparing to leave Buurhakaba, a strategically important town in Bay Region. Unconfirmed reports further suggest that Ethiopian troops could withdraw from several other locations across Bay and Bakool by September.
The reported withdrawal would represent a significant development in Somalia’s ongoing security transition, particularly in areas where Ethiopian forces have played an important role in supporting Somali authorities and conducting operations against Al-Shabaab.
Somali security forces are reportedly preparing to take over positions and responsibilities potentially left by the Ethiopian troops. The Somali forces are expected to receive assistance from Türkiye, including support in areas such as intelligence, surveillance, air capabilities and other security operations.
However, concerns have emerged over whether Somali forces currently have enough personnel, equipment and logistical capacity to immediately secure all the locations that could be vacated.
Security officials and local communities are particularly concerned about the possibility of gaps emerging during any handover. Bay and Bakool contain strategically important towns and rural areas where militant groups have previously maintained a presence.
A poorly coordinated withdrawal could potentially create opportunities for Al-Shabaab to increase its activities, threaten local communities or attempt to regain influence in areas where government forces have made security gains.
The reported developments also come as Somalia continues efforts to strengthen its national security institutions and gradually assume greater responsibility for the country’s security from foreign forces.
For the Somali government, ensuring a smooth transition will require adequate troop deployments, intelligence capabilities, logistics and coordination between federal and regional security forces.
The involvement of Türkiye could become particularly important if Somali forces are required to respond quickly to emerging security threats following any Ethiopian withdrawal.
Nevertheless, the reports remain preliminary, and there has been no comprehensive official confirmation regarding the exact number of Ethiopian troops involved, the precise locations they may leave or the timetable for any withdrawal.
It is also unclear whether all reported withdrawals would involve a complete departure or whether some Ethiopian forces could remain in selected strategic areas.
Any formal handover is likely to require close coordination between Ethiopian forces, the Somali Federal Government, regional authorities and local security commanders to prevent disruptions to security operations.
The situation is being closely watched by residents and political and security stakeholders in Bay and Bakool, particularly because of the potential impact on civilian safety and access to essential services.
The success of any withdrawal will ultimately depend on whether Somali forces can move into vacated positions quickly and maintain effective security without creating vulnerabilities that armed groups could exploit.
