MOGADISHU, (HAN) – Tensions are reportedly escalating between Kenyan authorities and the Jubaland administration following a recent incident involving Jubaland leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe.” Reliable sources within Somali and Kenyan political circles have confirmed that Kenya’s intelligence chief expressed strong dissatisfaction over what he described as “disrespectful and uncooperative behavior” by Ahmed Madobe toward senior Kenyan officials.
According to multiple diplomatic and security sources, the strain in relations stems from a series of meetings in which Madobe allegedly dismissed or undermined requests and advice from Kenyan representatives based in Kismayo and Nairobi. Kenya, which has historically maintained a close alliance with Jubaland for both strategic and security purposes, reportedly views Madobe’s recent conduct as a sign of growing arrogance and political defiance.
Political observers in Mogadishu note that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre have long been aware of Madobe’s unpredictable behavior, shifting political loyalties, and confrontational leadership style.
Despite these challenges, the Somali federal leadership has continued to engage him cautiously, recognizing his considerable influence in southern Somalia.
For Kenya, Jubaland has long served as a buffer zone against the Al-Shabaab insurgency, particularly along the volatile Kenya–Somalia border. Nairobi’s military and intelligence networks have played an instrumental role in supporting Jubaland’s administration since its establishment—politically, financially, and militarily.
However, the latest diplomatic rift signals a potential turning point. Kenyan officials reportedly believe that Madobe has begun drifting away from Nairobi’s regional policy goals, focusing instead on consolidating his own political survival and influence ahead of upcoming Somali federal and regional political transitions.
Diplomatic insiders in both Mogadishu and Nairobi suggest that Kenya may soon reassess its engagement strategy with Jubaland, possibly reducing direct support or reconfiguring its alliances within Somalia’s complex federal landscape. Such a recalibration could significantly impact the balance of power in southern Somalia, where Jubaland continues to play a pivotal role in security and political negotiations.
Analysts warn that further deterioration in relations between Madobe and Kenyan authorities could undermine regional security cooperation against Al-Shabaab and complicate Somalia’s fragile state-building efforts. Meanwhile, Somali leaders in Mogadishu are said to be observing the situation carefully, hoping that a period of calm diplomacy may restore working relations between Ahmed Madobe and his long-time Kenyan allies.
