MOGADISHU/ASMARA — Growing diplomatic engagement between Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has raised questions about whether a broader regional alignment is emerging over Ethiopia’s ambitions to secure access to the Red Sea.
The issue has gained renewed attention following a regional meeting in Egypt involving the leaders of Somalia, Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan. The discussions focused on regional security, sovereignty, political cooperation and developments affecting the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s search for sea access
Ethiopia, one of the world’s largest landlocked countries, has repeatedly emphasized the strategic and economic importance of obtaining reliable access to the sea.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has argued that Ethiopia needs secure maritime access for its growing economy, while insisting that the issue should be addressed through negotiations and peaceful arrangements with neighboring countries.
Somalia, meanwhile, has said it does not fundamentally oppose Ethiopia obtaining commercial access to the sea, but insists that any arrangement must be negotiated with Somalia and operate under Somali sovereignty.
President Hassan Sheikh has previously indicated that Ethiopia could potentially use Somali ports for commercial imports and exports if an agreement is reached between the two governments.
Is Somalia coordinating with Eritrea against Ethiopia?
The increasingly close contacts between Hassan Sheikh and Afwerki have prompted speculation among regional observers about whether Somalia and Eritrea are coordinating their positions to counter Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions.
However, there is currently no publicly confirmed agreement showing that Somalia and Eritrea have established a joint strategy specifically designed to prevent Ethiopia from obtaining access to the Red Sea.
Instead, the two governments have several overlapping concerns, including regional security, territorial sovereignty and developments involving Ethiopia.
Eritrea has historically opposed initiatives that it believes could undermine its security or regional position, while Somalia has emphasized that Ethiopia’s access to the sea must not compromise Somali sovereignty.
Egypt and Sudan add another dimension
Egypt and Sudan are also deeply involved in the regional debate.
Cairo has strategic concerns about Ethiopia’s policies, particularly over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the wider balance of power in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.
Sudan, meanwhile, remains consumed by its devastating internal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces.
The convergence of interests among Somalia, Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan has therefore attracted attention, although the four countries have different national priorities and security concerns.
Somaliland remains a sensitive issue
The debate over Ethiopia’s access to the sea is also closely connected to Somaliland.
Ethiopia has previously explored arrangements involving access to Somaliland’s coastline, while Somalia maintains that Somaliland remains part of its territory.
Mogadishu has strongly opposed any foreign agreement involving Somali territory that is concluded without the consent of the federal government.
This has made the question of maritime access particularly sensitive, with Somalia, Ethiopia and Somaliland holding fundamentally different positions over sovereignty and territorial authority.
A changing Horn of Africa
The developments come as relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea remain tense and as the wider Horn of Africa faces multiple security challenges.
The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have also become increasingly important to regional and international powers because of their strategic maritime routes and proximity to major global trade corridors.
For Somalia, maintaining relations with Ethiopia while simultaneously strengthening ties with Eritrea, Egypt and other regional partners presents a complex diplomatic challenge.
For Ethiopia, securing reliable access to the sea remains a major strategic objective.
And for Eritrea, Somalia and other Red Sea states, the question is how Ethiopia’s ambitions can be accommodated without undermining their sovereignty and security interests.
For now, there is no publicly confirmed evidence that Hassan Sheikh and Afwerki have reached a specific agreement aimed at blocking Ethiopia’s access to the sea. However, their increasingly visible diplomatic coordination is likely to remain an important issue as competition and alliances across the Horn of Africa continue to evolve.
