By HAN News Desk
ADDIS ABABA / ASMARA — As Ethiopia continues to express its ambition to secure direct access to the Red Sea, regional observers and political analysts have warned that any military or coercive approach to the issue could trigger unprecedented tensions across the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s stated interest in accessing the sea for commercial purposes has been widely acknowledged by its neighbors, who recognize the landlocked nation’s growing economy and need for trade routes. Many regional ports — including Djibouti, Berbera, Mogadishu, Lamu, and Mombasa — have already welcomed peaceful commercial cooperation with Addis Ababa, emphasizing mutual benefit and regional integration.
In Eritrea, President Isaias Afwerki, a veteran Pan-African leader, has long maintained that Assab and Massawa are “free ports for the region,” accessible for fair and peaceful trade. His position reflects a broader understanding that maritime access should promote economic development, not geopolitical confrontation.
However, Ethiopia’s reported intention to establish a naval base and exert influence over the Red Sea corridor — under the slogan of controlling territory “from the river to the sea” — has raised alarm among coastal states.
Regional diplomats and security analysts argue that such aspirations are unacceptable to all Red Sea littoral nations, including Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Yemen, Djibouti, and Somalia. These countries view any unilateral move by Ethiopia as a direct challenge to their sovereignty and to the stability of one of the world’s most strategic waterways.
Analysts warn that if Ethiopia pursues a military option to gain sea access, it could face a historic regional alliance opposing its actions — potentially the largest coalition against a single state in the modern history of the Horn of Africa.
“The region supports Ethiopia’s right to trade and prosperity,” one regional security expert told HAN News. “But no country will tolerate a policy of domination or military expansion into the Red Sea.”
The statement reflects a growing consensus among regional leaders that dialogue, trade cooperation, and respect for sovereignty remain the only viable path toward long-term stability and prosperity in the Horn of Africa.
